Binomial Basketball

Bayesian NBA Playmaking Modeling

Modeling the balance between risk taking and playmaking

17 hrs ago • Binomial Basketball

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Bayesian Modeling of Hustle in the NBA

Quantifying effort

Mar 7 • Binomial Basketball

13

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February 2026

Modeling True Shooting Ability

Modeling raw shooting talent

Feb 28 • Binomial Basketball

9

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Comprehensive NBA 3PT Modeling

Extending our FT modeling to 3PT shooting

Feb 21 • Binomial Basketball

6

2

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NBA Bayesian Score Predictions - 2026.02.19

Full posterior distributions for Thursday's NBA games

Feb 16 • Binomial Basketball

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The NBA's 3-point Variance Lie

Does shooting more 3's increase your variance?

Feb 14 • Binomial Basketball

24

10

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NBA Bayesian Score Predictions

Posterior distributions on NBA game outcomes

Feb 9 • Binomial Basketball

7

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Comprehensive NBA Free Throw Modeling

Enough predictors to tighten up the posterior distributions

Feb 7 • Binomial Basketball

13

1

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Free Throw Shooting by Position

Refining our free throw modeling

Feb 1 • Binomial Basketball

4

5

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January 2026

NBA Free Throw Modeling

A hierarchical binomial model of 2025-26 free throw shooting

Jan 31 • Binomial Basketball

12

10

2

April 2024

Predicting Basketball Winners After Watching the First Half

If you were trying to predict the winner of an NBA game, would you rather know the score at halftime, or which teams are playing?

Apr 21, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

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March 2024

Predicting NBA Scores Without Any Data

Wrapping up our prior modeling

Mar 23, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

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