Binomial Basketball

Free Throw Shooting by Position

Refining our free throw modeling

Feb 1 • Binomial Basketball

3

4

1

January 2026

NBA Free Throw Modeling

A hierarchical binomial model of 2025-26 free throw shooting

Jan 31 • Binomial Basketball

8

8

2

April 2024

Predicting Basketball Winners After Watching the First Half

If you were trying to predict the winner of an NBA game, would you rather know the score at halftime, or which teams are playing?

Apr 21, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

15

1

1

March 2024

Predicting NBA Scores Without Any Data

Wrapping up our prior modeling

Mar 23, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

5

1

Predicting NBA Scores Part 3

Improving some straightforward priors

Mar 3, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

6

4

1

February 2024

Predicting NBA Scores Part 2

Improving our model's priors

Feb 26, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

7

7

Predicting NBA Scores Part 1

Our baseline model

Feb 24, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

7

6

1

Player Improvement Modeling

Midway through the season: who is actually improving?

Feb 15, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

5

1

Probability of NBA overtime over the years

What's the chance tonight's game goes into overtime?

Feb 13, 2024 • Binomial Basketball

6

2

1

February 2022

Reworking NBA.com's "Percentile" Column

Putting confidence intervals on an overconfident metric

Feb 24, 2022 • Binomial Basketball

3

Player Consistency Modeling

A league-wide survey

Feb 23, 2022 • Binomial Basketball

3

Predicting Sensational Stats, pt 3

Taking a closer look at player consistency.

Feb 20, 2022 • Binomial Basketball

3

1